A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
