Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
