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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd