🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. However, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime also-rans rising in unison. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still